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It'll have to change first... Jack Hoxley (0 replies, 0 views) (2001-Jan-11)
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In it's current form I dont think it will happen... Throwing power and features at the problem only goes so far... sure, in 10 years time we'll have a polygon and lighting capability that rivals current day Silicon graphics machines (2003 is the offial prediction)... but, it gets to a point quite quickly where we are at the limit of the human mind - sure we can create that world, but how long will it take - A realistic person 3D model with a high polygon count will only be pulled off by a pro artists with a lot of time to spare, and then the worlds themselves - programmers will take years to write stuff to power a 100 Giga-Triangle landscape engine... Then there are the Economic Consequences - No one will fund a game that's not going to be published for 10 years. Simple as that. So we'll then be limited by that, if a software house wants to survive they'll either have to reuse the same code (to save time) or they'll have to simplify things... Basically, we'll need a more ingenious solution to things - powerful libraries, as well as *intelligent* hardware... And then, forgetting graphics - A game will only succeed if it has Audio, AI and physics to match; By this point in time we'll have programmers working on AI code for years on end... so the two paths: 1. We just throw more power at things, and get games produced with more development time and only be the elite few. or 2. We get to a natural barrier, where the human factors hold back the hardware. In the first instance, all it takes is for someone like ID software to make an insanely perfect engine (like Quake 3/4/5/n) and licence it off to everybody... hey presto! cloned games and mods... :) Jack;


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